Per-Olof Eriksson

av ole, torsdag, november 14, 2019, 00:18 (318 dagar sedan) @ Seawolf

Va nu inte naiv.

Det är så att klimatforskare i The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
och UN använder klimatmodeller.

Och, en klimatmodell kan beskrivas så här:
"Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the
atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun."

Lite mera beskrivning:
"Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years
to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what
we know happened. If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere
in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen
in the future.
So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict
future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right,
there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against
the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models
could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model.
All other known forcings are adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise
in temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable of explaining
the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain that rise, and explains it completely
without any need for additional, as yet unknown forcings."


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